‘The Nazi cudgel’

A weekly newsletter on German politics, with news and analysis on the new government.
By MATTHEW KARNITSCHNIG
with NETTE NÖSTLINGER
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As Goethe liked to say, better to put an end to a fright than suffer fright without end (lieber ein Ende mit Schrecken als ein Schrecken ohne Ende). 
Ok, maybe Goethe didn’t coin this nugget of Teutonic folk wisdom, but he definitely would’ve were he to experience the political paroxysm that has befallen his beloved Schland.
Bloody Sunday: It will come as no surprise to regular Bulletin readers that the European election was a bloodbath for Germany’s ruling tripartite coalition, which mustered only 31 percent of the vote. 
Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats suffered their worst result in a national poll since the age of Bismarck, losing nearly half their support since the last federal election to finish with 13.9 percent. It’s worth pausing for a moment to consider just how disastrous that result is for a party that defines itself as a big-tent party, or Volkspartei, and has been a pillar of German democracy ever since Germans were given the right to vote.
Pause over: Scholz’s coalition partner the Greens fared no better, winning just 11.9 percent, a 20 percent drop over the 2021 national election. Some might see that as an apples-and-oranges comparison because the 2021 poll wasn’t a European election, but a German parliamentary election. But given that domestic issues dominated the campaign and it’s the only national barometer we’ve had since 2021, we think it’s instructive. Using the 2019 European election as a baseline, the Greens fared even worse, losing nearly half of their support. 
In the land of the blind, the one-eyed party is a Free Democrat. The liberal FDP managed to stay above the 5 percent mark, just barely. While that’s less than half the result they achieved in the 2021 parliamentary election, they tried to sell it as a de facto victory because, compared to the 2019 European election, they lost only on 0.2 percent. 
Calling BS: No sane person should buy that argument. The FDP, its propaganda notwithstanding, is just as screwed as the rest of them. 
And the winner is: The Christian Democrats were the clear victors with 30 percent, followed by the radical-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) with 16 percent. Most striking is that the AfD now dominates the east, the former territory of the communist German Democratic Republic. The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, a new, left-wing populist party, put in a strong showing in its first election, scoring over 6 percent nationally.
As lifelong foreigners, we here at the Bulletin think the Germans should be on the barricades over the country’s subpar economic performance, its loss of an innovative spirit and gutless foreign policy. Yet it’s another issue that seems to animate many of them.
It’s migration, dummkopf! To understand why the coalition got so hammered, it’s worth having a look at the post-election surveys. More than 50 percent of voters said they are worried that “too many foreigners” are coming to Germany and that “our life in Germany is going to substantially change.” More than 60 percent worry that “the influence of Islam will become too strong.” Nearly 75 percent profess fears of a “massive increase in crime.” The two parties with the toughest agenda on migration: the AfD and Christian Democrats. Any questions? 
‘Nazi Hammer:’ The AfD’s success may not have been a surprise, but for many in the SPD, the reality of it was still a shock. SPD party chairman Lars Klingbeil couldn’t contain himself during the post-game analysis on German television. Sitting next to AfD leader Alice Weidel, Klingbeil reached for what Germans call the Nazi-Keule, or “Nazi cudgel,” a rhetorical device meant to shock your counterpart into a state of speechlessness.    
Boom: “I think the European election result has woken many people up to the fact that the Nazis have become stronger,” Klingbeil said. When Weidel asked whom he meant, Klingbeil responded: “You know that I’m referring to you and the AfD.”
Unhinged: Nazi comparisons are always fraught (as we may or may not know from personal experience!) Whatever one thinks of the AfD, it’s a stretch (and, many would argue, insulting to the memory of the millions persecuted and murdered by Hitler’s regime) to refer to the radical-right party as Nazis. (Fascists, though? Sure!) That’s why Klingbeil’s outburst ultimately says more about just how lost he and his party are than it does about the “Nazis.” 
German humor: That said, the stir did remind us of two of our favorite Nazi-themed comedy routines on Germany’s greatest neurosis. The first, “Playing the Nazi Card in the Third Reich,” has English subtitles (under settings). The second, which has a football theme, is German only. What a pity!  
Back to zee point! What does it all mean? Scholz’s government has lost all legitimacy and is running on fumes. Though some observers still think he’ll manage to limp along for another year until elections in the fall of 2025, one can’t discount the possibility that his government will collapse. 
Money, money, money: The most immediate challenge to the government’s future is the 2025 budget, which the parties are nowhere close to agreeing on. It’s a familiar dynamic, with the SPD and Greens trying to squeeze out more money from Finance Minister Christian Lindner of the FDP, who tells them ‘nein.’ The standoff between the coalition’s fiscal conservatives and socialist spendthrifts sets the stage for a Götterdämmerung moment that we described in detail here. 
Can’t they all just get along? In the view of the SPD’s general secretary, Kevin Kühnert, no. Kühnert, whose previous career in customer service earned him the nickname “Call Center Kevin,” lashed out at the FDP and Greens, whom he blamed for the SPD’s poor showing. 
‘It’s you not me:’ Describing the SPD’s predicament as “guilt by association” (Kontaktschande), Kühnert argued that lower income voters, the SPD’s erstwhile base, rejected the elitst Greens and FDP.
Schadenfreude: The SPD isn’t the only one not playing nice. When the Green’s implosion on Sunday was announced at FDP headquarters, there was a smattering of applause and even a few whoops.
SPOILER ALERT: Even if the parties manage to get past the budget impasse, the next test awaits. In September, three eastern states — Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg — are set to vote. The AfD leads the polls by a substantial margin in all three.
And the coalition parties? In Saxony and Thuringia, the SPD is polling at 6-7 percent. The Greens are at the 5 percent threshold in two of the three states, and at just 7 percent in the third, Brandenburg. Meanwhile, the FDP is unlikely to cross the 5 percent threshold in any of the three states. 
Only a flesh wound? If the poll numbers are borne out at the ballot box, there will be even more pressure on Scholz to, at the very least, call a confidence vote. 
**Sea, sand, and … politics? The leaders of the G7 are meeting in the idyllic coastal city of Bari, Italy for their annual summit from June 13-15. Who is also there? You guessed it: POLITICO’s Global Playbook, our global newsletter anchored by Suzanne Lynch, who will deliver every unmissable detail from this event in your inbox. Sign up to read here.**
AFD AND BSW SKIPPED ZELENSKYY SPEECH: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke in Germany’s Bundestag, the national parliament, on Tuesday in an effort to rally support for the Ukrainian cause. He was greeted with enthusiastic applause. But he likely could not help but also notice that a significant number of seats were empty. That’s because parliamentarians from the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), a new populist party founded by a former leftist icon, boycotted the event. As we pointed out in our report,  their absence showed in stark terms how a swath of the German electorate is ambivalent, even hostile, towards the Ukrainian cause. “We refuse to listen to a speaker in camouflage,” said AfD national leaders Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla in a statement, referring to Zelenskyy’s signature wartime attire. “He is now only in office as a war and begging president.”
Speaking of AfD and BSW: While the EU election was held on Sunday, there were also local elections in eight German states, including in the eastern states of Saxony, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Brandenburg. The AfD and BSW are particularly strong across the former East Germany, where many voters apparently like these parties’ amalgamation of tough-on-migration, pro-Russia policies. In the EU election, the AfD came in first in the states of the former East Germany, and BSW third. The results in the municipal elections also underscored the strength of these parties. Both parties won more more seats in some local councils than they had candidates standing for election, MDR, RND and NDR reported.
REBUILDING UKRAINE: While, he was in town, Zelenskyy attended the Ukraine Recovery Conference, a two-day affair dedicated to Ukraine’s reconstruction. Around 2000 participants, including high-level business representatives and politicians, met on Tuesday and Wednesday in Berlin for the conference. German industry, eager to get in on the business of Ukraine’s reconstruction, was there in full force. Siemens, Bayer, and wind-turbine maker Nordex were on site. But also Citigroup, Moller-Maersk and Volvo. Zelenskyy called on German energy companies to make short-term investments in the country’s war-torn energy infrastructure, preferably before next winter. “We will need support … not promotional funds, but promising investments,” he said. “Many agreements and contracts have drafted and are ready for signature.”
Defense and finance: During the conference, German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall and the Ukrainian government announced they will begin producing the Lynx armored vehicle in Ukraine this year, while Deutsche Bank made two preliminary agreements, including a deal to finance the construction of a power plant, German daily Handelsblatt reported. The EU pledged guarantees worth €1.4 billion for partner banks in a bid to attract private sector investment in Ukraine. Berlin, meanwhile, committed to further develop the Ukrainian Business Development Fund, which is to be modelled on Germany’s national development bank, KfW.
PEACE CONFERENCE: On Saturday, Scholz will head to Switzerland to attend the two-day Ukraine Peace Summit. Ukraine has secured promises from more than 100 countries to attend, according to Zelenskyy’s office, although some key states, including China, refused to come, citing the absence of a representative from Russia. 
EU SUMMIT: On Tuesday, EU leaders will meet in Luxemburg to discuss the (nearly solved) EU top jobs puzzle, among other matters. 
LINDNER IN WARSAW: Germany’s finance minister, Christian Lindner, is scheduled to travel to Warsaw on Tuesday, where he’ll meet his French and Polish counterparts. 
HABECK IN CHINA: Economy Minister Robert Habeck leaves Wednesday for a five-day visit to China, where he is expected to push for lower EV duties in a bid to shield German automakers from Chinese retaliation. A business delegation will accompany Habeck on his trip, which includes stops in Beijing, Shanghai and Hangzhou. Habeck will also travel to the South Korean capital.
ORBAN IN TOWN: Scholz will receive Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán on Friday. The two will discuss Hungary’s upcoming EU Council presidency.
HATE MAIL: Send complaints (if you must), tips, checks and random thoughts to mkarnitschnig @politico.eu. You’ll also find me on X @mkarnitschnig.
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